Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ICP prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 6.818782 7.544232 8.351266 9.322908 10.470856 11.796491 1.346183e+01
2024-10-13 5.508612 6.416789 7.510223 8.949679 10.836042 13.287087 1.682734e+01
2024-10-20 4.740098 5.698028 6.909745 8.600864 10.981056 14.352814 1.979094e+01
2024-10-27 4.250585 5.231301 6.519287 8.401156 11.208584 15.490303 2.312568e+01
2024-11-03 3.913274 4.911351 6.264210 8.320714 11.552222 16.831058 2.722532e+01
2024-11-10 3.807612 4.884323 6.396837 8.804127 12.829933 19.997734 3.611999e+01
2024-11-17 3.634967 4.741501 6.339505 8.977321 13.619863 22.520326 4.516378e+01
2024-11-24 3.402026 4.489189 6.089756 8.801071 13.753752 23.794496 5.200494e+01
2024-12-01 3.223929 4.301910 5.918997 8.729260 14.059089 25.513031 6.143711e+01
2024-12-08 3.038172 4.088943 5.688228 8.523830 14.065503 26.560435 6.970703e+01
2024-12-15 2.906017 3.947799 5.558809 8.479486 14.384385 28.464014 8.324018e+01
2024-12-22 2.806204 3.849191 5.488941 8.532281 14.913777 31.106033 1.037874e+02
2024-12-29 2.738545 3.805713 5.521661 8.811522 16.076546 36.291320 1.512401e+02
2025-01-05 2.567887 3.589587 5.249271 8.479121 15.787281 37.059144 1.745969e+02
2025-01-12 2.415269 3.393459 4.996606 8.157481 15.465626 37.626746 2.000928e+02
2025-01-19 2.298533 3.248678 4.822118 7.972729 15.447967 39.286428 2.460177e+02
2025-01-26 2.208820 3.142909 4.708110 7.898250 15.698785 42.127128 3.294335e+02
2025-02-02 2.201297 3.172219 4.836080 8.345462 17.454878 52.482104 7.419701e+02
2025-02-09 2.153742 3.130807 4.831358 8.505464 18.463601 60.678832 1.646425e+03
2025-02-16 2.068366 3.020103 4.689815 8.342638 18.472026 63.791052 2.834631e+03
2025-02-23 2.000955 2.937054 4.594897 8.276261 18.771456 69.010016 7.402545e+03
2025-03-02 1.923330 2.832688 4.453032 8.086268 18.635350 71.513021 1.996987e+04
2025-03-09 1.868030 2.764901 4.377368 8.045234 18.990287 77.907410 4.112387e+06